Kisruh JP Morgan Soal Obligasi Indonesia
"While relative outperformance may explain existing duration positions, the question becomes whether investors will stay engaged going forward. We see three vulnerabilities why ultimately INDOGBs may see outflows and why it is therefore prudent to reduce risk to an underweight at this stage," demikian kutipan analisa tersebut.
(Foto: Riset JP Morgan)
Pada bagian lain JP Morgan juga memberikan perspektif mengenai argumen yang suportif. Antara lain disinggung soal optimisme harga CPI yang akan turun 4 persen, proyeksi bisa BI rate dipangkas akan menjadi hal negatif bagi obligasi. Berikut analisa lainnya.
“The 10y INDOGB vs UST yield spread has now surpassed the 2013 'taper tantrum' peak (Figure 11). In other words, current pricing suggests that the bonds are "somewhat" prepared for the upcoming Fed tightening and/or a continued CNY devaluation that we foresee. However, Indonesian financial markets are arguably entering a period that is more challenging than 2013. Next year, Indonesia will face a growth slowdown on top of tightening monetary conditions. More risk premium than during the 'taper' could be justified in this context,.”
(Rani Hardjanti)
